Drosten: Once the elderly and maybe part of the risk groups have been vaccinated, there will be immense economic, social, political and perhaps also legal pressure to end the corona measures. And then, huge numbers of people will become infected within just a short amount of time, more than we can even imagine at the moment. We won’t have 20,000 or 30,000 new cases a day, but up to 100,000 in a worst-case scenario. It will, of course, be primarily younger people who are less likely than older people to have severe symptoms, but when a huge number of younger people get infected, then the intensive care units will fill up anyway and a lot of people will die. Just that it will be younger people. We can cushion this terrible scenario somewhat by pushing the numbers way down now.
Der Spiegel: Can we be confident that case numbers will begin to drop in spring as temperatures rise?
Drosten: I don’t think so. The fact that we had such a relaxed summer in 2020 likely had to do with the fact that our case numbers remained below a critical threshold in the spring. But that’s not the case any longer. I am afraid that it will be more like in Spain, where case numbers climbed rapidly again after the lockdown was lifted, even though it was quite hot. In South Africa, too, where it is currently summer, case numbers are at a high level. (Sinks into thought, saying nothing) I’m sorry, unfortunately I’m extremely tired.
Rafaela von Bredow & Veronika Hackenbroch
A grim prediction, but I’m afraid quite realistic. I have been following the work of lead virologist Christian Drosten since the start of the pandemic and I have appreciated his impartial conclusions and warnings based on scientific data. In this interview, he again raises alarms about viral transmission through children in schools, a source of infection which unfortunately many authorities choose to ignore or downplay for political reasons, and advocates for stricter work from home measures. Anecdotally, I have noticed many of my German colleagues continued working at the office, even during the recent lockdown, despite having back-office tasks that could be easily performed at home.
As scientists, we are defenseless.Foto: Michele Tantussi / Getty Images
Mr. Drosten also touches upon another point I have been thinking more recently, namely the problems of communicating scientific results. Direct interactions between scientists and the public on Twitter seem less and less productive. Indeed, the more time a scientist spends on Twitter, the less time he has for his research, and so I am increasingly skeptical of specialists who post frequently and engage with others. Conveying information through journalists and public authorities is also problematic, as they constantly mix facts with their personal opinions and policies, or choose to present results confirming these policies while ignoring findings that contradict them.
He is at least cautiously optimistic about vaccines – and apparently the European public is warming up to vaccination, just in time to receive it.
Der Spiegel: … which helps the virus evade our immune defenses. Does that mean that the vaccines will be ineffective?
Drosten: Antibodies are just one component of immune protection, another is T-cell immunity. That protects much more strongly against a serious progression of the illness. If the virus mutates, it doesn’t have an effect on T-cell immunity. As such, I don’t think that we have to fear that our vaccines will be ineffective.
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