22 June 2021

Minor Planet Mailing List: “2014 UN271: A possible dwarf planet from the Oort Cloud on a tour through the Solar System”

Some very recent exciting news from the Dark Energy Survey collaboration (https://minorplanetcenter.net/mpec/K21/K21M53.html)

This new object, 2014 UN271, is not just unusual, but radically exceptional among all known bodies in the Solar System to date. Discovered about 29 AU out from the Sun and currently around 22 away, its orbit takes it from just beyond the orbit of Saturn (10.9 AU) all the way out to the Oort Cloud - no, not the Hill Cloud. the Oort Cloud. The incoming barycentric aphelion was 39,400 +/- 1200 AU, and outgoing it will be an even huger 54,600 +/- 2300 AU (!!)

Based on the given absolute magnitude, and given how exceptionally red it looked in 2014 precovery images from CFHT (the g - r color was 0.9, and r - i was 0.5!) I would estimate at an albedo of 0.01-0.08 a diameter of 130-370 kilometers (nominally 160) which puts it on a similar scale, if not larger than, Sarabat’s huge comet C/1729 P1, and almost undoubtedly the largest Oort Cloud object ever discovered - almost in dwarf planet territory!

Sam Deen

Exciting indeed! This newly discovered TNO is larger than most known comets, with the possible exception of Sarabat’s comet, and potentially nearly the size of major main belt asteroids – and comparable to the largest centaur Chiron. It can certainly make you wonder what other planetoids lie undiscovered on the outskirts of our solar system. As 2014 UN271 is currently on an approaching trajectory, astronomers will have plenty of opportunities to refine its orbit and study it during its perihelion passage, currently estimated for January 2031, and beyond. Some have reported observations of a cometary coma around it already, but its closest approach brings it just outside the orbit of Saturn, so it will be too far from the Sun to be visible to the naked eye, or to generate a sizeable coma.

21 June 2021

6FPS by Chuq: “My Life in the Apple Ecosystem (and more)”

It’s an example of a bad trend I see out of Apple, a refusal to embrace and compete in existing market areas, but instead trying to use their existing ecosystem to force people into exclusive relationships with Apple. Almost as if they don’t feel they can compete and win, so instead they attempt use their 800 pound gorilla status in some area to force us into doing it their way in others. And often, this blows up in their face, and it may be blowing up in their face big time right now, but we’ll get to that shortly.

It’s an indication of an attitudinal shift in Apple I don’t like: it’s one thing to believe it can and should be the dominate player in a market, and when you turn out dominant products like the iPhone, you deserve to be. But increasingly, it seems Apple is shifting from “we can be the biggest player in this market” to “we don’t believe we should have any competitors in this market”. And that trend really worries me and makes me less supportive of Apple in general.

I used the word "arrogance" above to describe Apple’s attitude towards developers. In looking at the material released in the Epic trial from inside Apple, another word also seems to define Apple’s attitude: Entitlement.

Somewhere along the way, Apple convinced itself it’s entitled to take all of this revenue from all of the places it’s taking it.

This disappoints me greatly, but worse, there seems no self-awareness of the negative reputation side effects the combination of arrogance and entitlement will engender.

When I was doing developer relations things, I was always arguing that we needed to do what was needed to make developers WANT to work with us; Apple’s attitude is they have to, so why bother?

Chuq von Rospach

I am a bit reluctant to share this essay, as it is part of a newsletter, not published on a website, and another article I had linked to years ago has since disappeared from his site. But his observation about Apple’s changing attitudes towards competition and its relationship with developers are a worthwhile read, even if others have made similar remarks before.

20 June 2021

Marian Coman – Haiganu: Fluviul șoaptelor

in Bucharest, Romania
Coperta Haiganu: Fluviul soaptelor de Marian Coman

Surghiunit dintre Cei Mari în lumea oamenilor în urmă cu nenumărate veacuri, zeul Haiganu rătăcește de atunci fără noimă printre aceste ființe inferioare lui, chinuit necontenit de vocile lor care‑i pătrund în minte, mereu, fără oprire, un fluviu de vaiere și durere pe care Haiganu trebuie să‑l asculte. Uneori, când gemetele lumii îl copleșesc, sau oameni nesăbuiți încearcă să‑l păcălească, puterea nimicitoare a lui Haiganu nu mai poate fi ținută în frâu, o lumină albă țâșnind din singurul lui ochi și arzând totul în cale‑i. Dar în ultima vreme din torentul năucitor s‑a desprins o voce, deosebită de restul, singura care îl alină pe Haiganu cu povești, ținând la depărtare corul chinuitor al celorlalți pentru prima oară de când pribegește printre oameni. Așa îl cunoaște Haiganu pe Zourazi, un fiu de mag prins de Dekibalos printr‑o vrajă a lui Moroianu, laolaltă cu mulți alții copii.

Romanul de față s‑a născut întâi sub forma unei benzi desenate, un proiect rar pe piața românească, care n‑a avut cine știe ce tradiție în acest sens din partea autorilor sau cerere din partea publicului. Inspirația a venit din folclorul românesc, în special din basmul lui Harap Alb și vechile zeități dacice, deși romanul se îndepărtează semnificativ de aceste surse. Cu singurul său ochi în frunte, Haiganu e modelat după Ochilă, dar, cel puțin deocamdată, nu îi întâlnim pe ceilalți însoțitori fantastici ai lui Harap Alb, și nici pe Harap Alb însuși. Împăratul Roșu în schimb este prezent la marginea povestirii, o amenințare care își țese pe ascuns planurile de a cotropi lumea. Dekibalos poartă numele celui mai faimos rege dacultimul de altfel, învins de împăratul Traian – dar setea lui de sadism și sânge are prea puține legături cu personajul istoric. Moroianu se leagă de folclorul mai recent, invocând moroiul, un soi de zombi autohton, atât cu numele, cât și prin comportament. Panteonul geto-dacic este prezent în numele Celor Mari: Gebeleizis, Derzelas, Pleistoros, Neris, Bendis; dar zeitățile în sine nu intervin în cursul acțiunii, ci sunt doar invocate în rugi și farmece.

15 June 2021

Coronavirus in Romania: an end in sight?

In the two months since my last update, the situation in Romania has improved significantly. Week after week, cases have declined at a steady pace of 20–30%, down to only 100–200 daily, a level not seen since late May and early June of last year. The number of tests has remained relatively stable, so we can be reasonably certain these case numbers reflect reality. In parallel, the number of patients in ICU is considerably lower as well, confirming this trend: it declined under 900 on May 9th for the first time in six months, and is now already under 300. Authorities have lifted several restrictions on May 15th, starting with the curfew in large cities and mask mandates in open spaces, but masks are still required inside stores, public transportation, and crowded places like bus stations.

As expected, the reported deaths have continued to increase in the first half of April, reaching a record of 237 on April 20th, and then steadily declined at a rate of around 20% each week. On the other hand, the new increases in June, topping 200 daily deaths again on 8th and 9th, is only a reporting artifact. Looking into the detailed daily accounts reveals that many of these deaths occurred in previous months and are just now being added to the official statistic for COVID-related deaths. As an example, on June 8th the official death count was 277, but 256 took place in prior months, going back to June 2020, so the actual death toll for the day was 21. This follows the discovery of inconsistencies between deaths reported by individual hospitals and central government, so I guess this is the solution chosen by authorities to update the number of deceased because of the pandemic. It is a rather odd way of correcting statistics, as it skews both the old reports and the current ones for June and makes it difficult to correlate current mortality with the case numbers.

13 June 2021

‘Brave New World’ (Peacock, season 1)

in Bucharest, Romania
Brave New World TV series poster

Classic science-fiction novels do not have the greatest track record when it comes to movie adaptations. The most successful was arguably Arthur C. Clarke’s 2001: A Space Odyssey, but his work is far more extensive. I, Robot converted Asimov’s nuanced ideas about robotics into a blunt Hollywood action movie; the upcoming Foundation series on Apple TV seems completely divorced from the source material. Dune’s adaptations so far have struggled to accurately reproduce the complexity of the novels; I have serious doubts whether Denis Villeneuve will achieve something better with his much-delayed movie. And nobody dared to touch the gut-wrenching 1984. The SF writer with the most successful film adaptations is likely Philip K. Dick, whose works inspired Blade Runner, Total Recall, Minority Report and The Adjustment Bureau.

Having said that, the resurgence of TV has allowed longer and more complex stories to be shown onscreen, and I think Brave New World makes a good example of successful adaption from a book that is almost a century old. The setup and plot follow the novel closely, while adding new elements that complement it rather well.

In a distant future, New London is a shining oasis of order and advanced technology in a desolated world. Each citizen has a well-defined place in the social hierarchy, predetermined at birth by his genetic makeup: Alphas at the top, enjoying the most privileges and occupying the positions of leadership; then Betas as knowledge workers and sexual companions for the Alphas; Gammas serving as house-staff for the upper casts; Epsilons doing repetitive, menial work like gardening, cleaning, and maintenance. As in the novel, despite their distinct roles, everyone is content to play their part for the greater harmony because negative emotions and thoughts are actively suppressed by the regular use of soma, a mood-altering drug that comes in many flavors for each of humans’ many feelings.

11 June 2021

The Guardian: “The endless hunt for the perfect flu vaccine”

One way to better protect older people is to vaccinate an entirely different demographic: schoolchildren. This notion was elegantly demonstrated in a natural experiment in Japan. From 1962 to 1987 most Japanese schoolchildren were vaccinated against influenza; at one point the vaccine was mandatory for a solid decade. The vaccination rate grew to around 85%, but the mandatory vaccination programme was discontinued in 1994. Over the next several years, there was an increase in the number of deaths in elderly people during the flu seasons. In the US, where there had been no change in the vaccination policy, deaths of elderly people over the same flu seasons remained unchanged. Vaccinating one part of the population, in other words, benefits another.

Jeremy Brown

This topic has lost much of its urgency with a far deadlier virus causing worldwide havoc, but some of the findings can prove insightful for dealing with this pandemic. The debate around school closures was fierce in many countries. Many claimed that young children do not spread the virus, based on the fact that they rarely develop symptoms; some countries even failed to test children to obscure results that would contradict those assumptions. This has been disproven whenever actual studies were performed, and a parallel with influenza further reinforces this often neglected point: protecting children from infection indirectly protects their families and social contacts, including old relatives who are most vulnerable to both influenza and COVID-19.

10 June 2021

The Guardian: “Dirty lies: how the car industry hid the truth about diesel emissions”

And, as it turned out, Volkswagen wasn’t the only one evading the law. Less flagrantly, but to similar effect, the vast majority of diesel cars were making a mockery of emissions rules. In the wake of the revelations in the US, European governments road-tested other big brands too. In Germany, testers found all but three of 53 models exceeded NOx limits, the worst by a factor of 18. In London, the testing firm Emissions Analytics found 97% of more than 250 diesel models were in violation; a quarter produced NOx at six times the limit. As the data kept coming in, our jaws just kept dropping. Because it is just so systematic, and so widespread, German says. VW isn’t even in the worst half of the manufacturers. With a few honourable exceptions, everybody’s doing it.

As Mock spoke, I began to absorb the particulars of Europe’s stunning failure. It starts with an enforcement structure that almost seems designed to let violators through. The European commission sets the rules on how much pollution a car is allowed to produce. But the job of enforcing them falls not to Brussels, but to national governments. And a car company preparing to release a new model can choose which country certifies it; every EU nation must then honour the approval. A savvy carmaker opts for a place where it provides lots of jobs, where officials are likely to be pliant.

The national enforcement agencies, for their part, are generally understaffed, poorly funded and lacking in technical expertise. Britain is an exception, but in most nations these weak agencies don’t even test cars themselves. About a dozen individual vehicles must be checked before a new model is approved, and the tests are often run by outside contractors. When they are done, the manufacturers hand the paperwork to regulators, and the results, says Mock, are usually accepted with little question.

Beth Gardiner

An older story, but exemplary to how big corporations can act against public interest if left unsupervised by government regulations and proper enforcement. The drive of senior management towards generating profits incentivizes them to search for shortcuts, to circumvent inconvenient rules and discard alarm signals from within the organization. And sooner or later this leads to negative outcomes, from the many toxic consequences of Facebook’s influence on public information, to unnecessary deaths, as it was the case with Boeing and even NASA.