Apple today began sending out emails to iOS developers, offering them a chance to purchase a 42mm Apple Watch Sport with a Blue Sport Band that has a guaranteed shipment date of April 28, 2015, in order to get them a device to begin testing apps on. Quantities of the watch are limited, and developers eligible to purchase a watch will be chosen by random selection.Juli Clover
It’s certainly in Apple’s best interest to get developers working for its newest device as soon as possible, but the reverse is not necessarily true, especially for small companies or independent developers. Spending hundreds of dollars on a device to rush an app without a clear business strategy is not a recipe for success. With a smaller display and different interaction models, the prospect of making money off Watch apps is far from clear. This is likely one of the cases where developers should aim for having the best Apple Watch app rather than the first.
As with the iPhone AppStore, it’s more likely a handful of popular apps will get the most users. Here are some dire estimates for the app install ‘long tail’:
11 installs per app in the first month
Yeah, that’s crazy isn’t it. Well, what if we turn the expectation knob full on “optimistic”? Let’s say Apple will ship 1M watches in the first month and the average user will install 25 apps in the watch, not 10. That means most of the apps will get about a mindblowing 50 installs in the first month.Marcelo Calbucci