The decade that followed the 2008 financial crisis saw the euro zone teeter on the brink of collapse, Britain vote to leave the European Union, and Donald Trump elected president. Today, the global economy has suffered another sudden seizure, shifting geopolitics as U.S.-China tensions have risen, trade has slowed markedly, and structural divisions between northern and southern Europe have widened. The question, then, is what might happen in the decade after this crisis?
Tom McTague
Historians love chapter breaks, said Robert Kaplan, an American foreign-policy expert and former member of the U.S. Defense Policy Board, who this month briefed officials at 10 Downing Street on the potential second-order effects of the coronavirus crisis.COVID-19 will come to be seen as a chapter break.
As the article states further down, I too had a nagging concern that Vladimir Putin could seize the unique opportunity caused by coronavirus chaos across Europe and the US – after all, Romania has always been too close for comfort with Russia. Considering Trump’s cozy relationship with Putin and the American President’s combined distractions of domestic epidemic and upcoming elections, what better time for Putin to intervene in Ukraine and Eastern Europe?! Alas, the virus knows no borders, and Russia was itself hard hit, with well above 5000 daily cases. Along with continued protests across the country, I think Putin has his hands full of problems to consider military invasions for the time being (or maybe he is waiting for the planned withdrawal of US troops from Germany…).
China on the other hand has significantly advanced its authoritarian interests in Hong Kong, and will likely act through various methods to extend its influence abroad while the United States is in disarray. Unfortunately, many trends and hidden interests will not become apparent until long after the crisis is concluded. The upcoming decade will certainly be critical on several fronts, from health to geopolitics to, most importantly, climate change, and these factors will reinforce each other in ways that are nearly impossible to predict.
After more than a decade of public-spending cuts, for example, Britain’s military—capable of helping the United States invade both Iraq and Afghanistan less than 20 years ago—has morphed into a “one shot” force that is unable to sustain itself for longer than six months outside Europe, according to Clarke. What will its capacity look like after another set of cuts? Britain and France required American support to intervene in Libya in 2011. Could a joint European force do so again anywhere along its exposed underbelly on the North African shore? Could it even be used in a purely medical capacity, as it was during the Ebola outbreak in 2014?
This quote above is relevant to the question weather current international institutions can still act effectively in today’s conflicted world. The UK is a member of UN’s Security Council, but it would not be able to enforce a decision on its own. With the US and China increasingly at odds, the UN is looking weaker and rather paralyzed in the face of rapid events.
Post a Comment