Americans have a new president but not a new country. While most Europeans rejoiced at Joe Biden’s victory in the November US presidential election, they do not think he can help America make a comeback as the pre-eminent global leader. This is the key finding of a pan-European survey of more than 15,000 people in 11 countries commissioned by the European Council on Foreign Relations, and conducted in November and December by Datapraxis and YouGov.
Our survey showed that Europeans’ attitudes towards the United States have undergone a massive change. Majorities in key member states now think the US political system is broken, that China will be more powerful than the US within a decade, and that Europeans cannot rely on the US to defend them. They are drawing radical consequences from these lessons. Large numbers think Europeans should invest in their own defence and look to Berlin rather than Washington as their most important partner. They want to be tougher with the US on economic issues. And, rather than aligning with Washington, they want their countries to stay neutral in a conflict between the US and Russia or China.
Ivan Krastev & Mark Leonard
Interesting results, but overall unsurprising, to me at least. Recent Republican presidents elected in the United States have been increasingly erratic, moving further from cooperation with traditional allies and towards putting American interests first. We cannot repeat this cycle of resets and departures in international relationships at the whims of an American electorate that cares too little about foreign policy. It will certainly be difficult to formulate a common European agenda, and even harder to implement it, but the first step is to acknowledge that it needs not be identical to the American agenda.
‘In America We Trust’ is the smallest tribe, comprising 9 per cent of all respondents. Its members believe that America is strong and working, whereas the EU is broken and declining. One is most likely to run into members of this tribe in Italy, Poland, and France, where 22 per cent, 12 per cent, and 12 per cent of respondents hold this view respectively. Members of this tribe are likely aware of the problems America is experiencing but know that, historically, the US has always bounced back after a crisis. They may have taken to heart Otto von Bismarck’s remark that
God has a special providence for fools, drunks, and the United States of America; in any case, they believe that America is better positioned than Europe to preserve its influence in the world. Members of this tribe tend to vote for right-wing populist parties. In Italy, they tend to vote for the League, the Brothers of Italy, or Forza Italia; in France, they tend to vote for Marine Le Pen’s National Rally or other right-wing parties and candidates. In the Netherlands, the majority of this tribe is formed of those who vote for the Party for Freedom (PVV) of Geert Wilders or the populist, right-wing Forum for Democracy. In Sweden, most of them vote for the Sweden Democrats. In Denmark, they mostly choose the New Right or the Danish People’s Party.
So American supporters are most likely to vote for extremist parties… Can’t say I’m very surprised by this either. It may be a reflection of the past four years of having Donald Trump as US president, but more likely of underlying distrust of the European Union. Ironically, these people don’t seem to realize their position is paradoxical: believing in America’s supremacy, supporting American interests above European or even national interests, does not mean America will return the favor.
One issue I have with this survey is that my own country is not represented! After the departure of the UK, Romania has the 6th largest population in the EU, so by not including it the results do not accurately reflect an ‘European position’.
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