3) Copilot is a tool that helps coders be more productive, but still is very far from being able to create a full program. DALL•E 2 is a tool that will help artists and illustrators be more creative, but it can also create a “complete work”. This may be an early example of the impact AI on labor markets. Although I firmly believe AI will create lots of new jobs, and make many existing jobs much better by doing the boring bits well, I think it’s important to be honest that it’s increasingly going to make some jobs not very relevant (like technology frequently does).
4) It’s a reminder that predictions about AI are very difficult to make. A decade ago, the conventional wisdom was that AI would first impact physical labor, and then cognitive labor, and then maybe someday it could do creative work. It now looks like it’s going to go in the opposite order.
Sam Altman
At the risk of sounding callous, the second remark feels rather obvious in retrospect considering the current capabilities of machine learning: large swaths of modern art, from abstract painting to electronic music, have diverged considerably from everyday reality. A machine learning system can easily replicate patterns of colors, motion, and sounds that spark some emotional connection in people, enough to be called ‘art’ by some of them.
In contrast, physical and cognitive labor must deliver meaningful results, constrained by the concrete laws of reality, and often their outputs become inputs for other processes – here the margin for error is much lower, otherwise whole systems would break apart. Despite the hype and intense work over the past years, current machine learning models are far from grasping even the most elementary relationships in the real world. Until then, their use will be severely limited or will remain under the supervision of human operators.
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