11 June 2023

The Next 30 Trips: “S/crappy - [special edition]”

As the number of articles, books, videos, and personalities trying to make a living talking about SpaceX online10 multiplied, I noticed that a weird, decidedly male, crypto-adjacent faction11 started to form.

The issue is that instead of everyone rooting on other teams, they started to actively root against them because they saw them as competition for SpaceX. The Space Launch System is the biggest target of this ire, and it has plenty of things we should be critical of as it was chronically behind schedule and overbudget.

More worrying, though, are the people punching down at the small teams trying to get their rockets off the ground. That attitude will kill innovation in this field faster than anything else. We should be rooting for these other companies and efforts to succeed, if we ever hope to actually open up space to humanity for peaceful purposes.


I don’t think this was a success, by any measure. Nuking the launch site, losing a high percentage of the engines on a relatively short ascent, failing to even separate the stages during stage separation, and then being grounded by the FAA for a full investigation (the deleterious effects on wildlife and human health are unknown) cannot be judged as a success by any measure.

Worse, their newest contract with NASA stipulates landing humans on the Moon by 2024, which is next year. Keep in mind, that Starship has nothing inside of it except the tanks, valves, and wires needed to make it fly. There is no payload bay. There are no seats. There is no life support system. We don’t know if the re-entry tiles will work. Honestly, if this was any company other than SpaceX I would declare them toast. Companies have folded over much less, especially in this industry.

Ben Kellie

Long and balanced analysis on the failed Starship launch a couple of weeks ago. The point about online mobs trashing SpaceX competitors is especially striking; I’m sure Musk is relishing this dynamic, and as the owner of Twitter he’s in a position to amplify these signals – anything to ensure SpaceX has a dominant position on the market to reap monopoly profits down the line. But, as always, what’s best for Musk and his companies is not best for society at large, and the vision of cheaper and safer space exploration in this case.

Damage to the area around the launch pad in Texas of SpaceX's Starship rocket in April 2023
This photo from April 22, 2023 shows damage to the area around the launch pad in Texas of SpaceX’s huge Starship rocket; a test launch ended with the rocket’s destruction. Patrick T. Fallon / AFP / Profimedia Images

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