We estimate the Apple iPhone X shipped 16.0 million units and captured 5 percent marketshare worldwide in Q1 2018. For the second quarter running, the iPhone X remains the world’s most popular smartphone model overall, due to a blend of good design, sophisticated camera, extensive apps, and widespread retail presence for the device. Apple has now shifted almost 50 million iPhone X units worldwide since commercial launch in November 2017. The Apple iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus shipped 12.5 and 8.3 million units, respectively, for second and third place. The previous-generation iPhone 7 shipped a respectable 5.6 million units for fourth place. Combined together, Apple today accounts for four of the world’s six most popular smartphone models.
Linda Sui
Let’s do a quick plausibility check on these numbers. Apple released their second quarter results last week, so we have the official sales and revenue numbers for the iPhone (52.217 Mio. units and $38,032 Mio. revenue, ASP $728.35). We know the prices for each iPhone model, so combined with the sales estimates above we can calculate an estimated revenue and ASP for these four models. I say ‘estimated’, because we don’t know how many people opted for basic storage or for the larger capacity, as this also impacts the sale price and ultimately ASP. I calculated two versions, one based on the (unlikely) assumption that sales went 100% to lower capacity phones, and another one assuming 15% of consumers chose the more expensive phone with more storage.
The results are… interesting, to say the least. Combined, the four iPhone models cited above would generate revenues of $34,430 Mio. at an ASP of $812 under the first assumption; or respectively $35,340 Mio. at an ASP of $833 with a mix of storage capacities. As the total revenue reported by Apple this quarter from iPhone sales was $38,032 Mio., this leaves 9.8 Mio. iPhones generating only $2,700 – $3,600 Mio. revenues, at an ASP lower than the official sale price of the iPhone SE ($349), currently still the cheapest iPhone on sale. That doesn’t sound very plausible to me. So, either the sales numbers above are being artificially inflated to give the impression of a strong quarter (for the X model in particular), or iPhones are generally selling at a sizeable discount compared to Apple’s list prices. Neither of which supports an iPhone X success story.
During my time looking at Apple’s sales numbers, I noticed a long-lasting trend of the iPhone ASP: no matter what Apple launches, the ASP hovers close the the sale price of the iPhone flagship with base storage – for a couple of years $649, recently increased to $699 – and never surpasses the price of the flagship with the next storage tier. This makeshift rule was respected last quarter as well: the record-high ASP of nearly $800 was lower than the sale price of the 256 GB iPhone 8 ($849). This makes me think the impact of the iPhone X on revenues will be short-lived – for mass customers, the driving force behind ASP increases is the base flagship (iPhone 8 for this yearly cycle). And I’m pretty sure Apple is aware of this. The base iPhone 8 price was increased by $50 (admittedly with more storage than last year), and this alone accounts for half of the ASP gains from last quarter.
Post a Comment