Last February, days after the Inauguration of President Joe Biden, America’s allies in Kyiv decided to get tough on Medvedchuk. The Ukrainian government started by taking his TV channels off the air, depriving Russia of its propaganda outlets in the country. The U.S. embassy in Kyiv applauded the move. About two weeks later, on Feb. 19, 2021, Ukraine announced that it had seized the assets of Medvedchuk’s family. Among the most important, it said, was a pipeline that brings Russian oil to Europe, enriching Medvedchuk and his family—including Putin’s goddaughter, Daria—and helping to bankroll Medvedchuk’s political party.
The first inkling of Putin’s response came less than two days later, at 7 a.m. on Feb. 21. In a little-noticed statement, the Russian Defense Ministry announced the deployment of 3,000 paratroopers to the border with Ukraine for large-scale exercises
, training them to seize enemy structures and hold them until the arrival of the main force
. Those soldiers were the first in a military buildup that has since grown to more than 100,000 Russian troops.
When the Zelensky government decided to go after Medvedchuk, the U.S. welcomed it as part of Ukraine’s struggle to counter Russian malign influence
, the official said. The methods used in this struggle have been novel and controversial. Rather than working through the justice system, Zelensky has imposed sanctions against Ukrainian tycoons and politicians, freezing their assets by decree.
This strategy, which the government calls “de-oligarchization”, has targeted many of Zelensky’s domestic opponents and, in particular, their television channels. The U.S. has avoided criticizing the crackdown, not wanting to “micromanage” what Ukraine was doing, said the senior U.S. official. But in the case of Medvedchuk, the U.S. embassy cheered Zelensky on.
Simon ShusterBehind every great crisis, it seems, there is always some personal element – in Ukraine’s case, the close and old ties between Vladimir Putin and the head of a major Ukrainian opposition party, Viktor Medvedchuk. This provides useful context for the question I was pondering in my previous post, namely why has Putin ramped up his aggression now, rather than in the four years prior, when Trump was President of the United States. As Biden assumed the presidency, Zelensky felt that the moment was ripe to crack down on the Russian-backed opposition – it would seem that he underestimated the extremes Putin was willing to go to help his old comrade and keep Ukraine under control.
It is far from clear whether peace talks can bring Europe back from the brink of war, or what Putin might consider a face-saving compromise. Under the Kremlin’s pandemic protocols, the Russian leader has been more isolated during this crisis than at any point in his career. In early January, when he would normally celebrate Orthodox Christmas among the crowds at a Russian cathedral, the Kremlin issued footage of the President alone with a priest, solemnly holding a candle in the chapel of his private residence. Very few people can speak to him now
, the Kremlin insider told me. The world inside his head is only his own.
This short passage adds a glimpse into Putin’s state of mind and increasing isolation – isolation that can foster extreme views and actions, in the absence of outside perspectives. This was apparent in his recent speech and the immediate invasion, a moment many (including myself) doubted it would come so soon, if ever. I fear that this cold determination against Ukraine and anyone else Putin might perceive as potential enemy will not be easily deterred, neither by external sanctions, nor by internal protests.
We are witnessing the emergence of a global power in this crisis: the European Union. I was confident that a Russian invasion w/d be a shock to Europe and lead to a robust response. But never w/d I have predicted the announcements from Germany, EU, and others. Truly stunning. 1/
— Max Bergmann (@maxbergmann) February 27, 2022
The European Union and United States have been remarkably quick and decisive imposing harsh sanctions over the course of these past few days. Some changes in position have been nothing short of extraordinary, from the German Chancellor announcing a consistent increase in the defense budget, to Finland and Sweden considering NATO membership, to the always-neutral Switzerland participating in the sanctions. Putin’s right-wing sycophants in Europe have also publicly distanced themselves from his actions – except for the British Nigel Farage. Some Asian countries such as Japan, Singapore, and South Korea, have applied sanctions as well, but others, in particular China and India, have been reluctant to abruptly cut ties with one of their largest supplier of raw materials and weapons. Cryptocurrencies have also declined blocking transactions with Russia, under the pretense that it’s against their nature.
The overall vibe in my Twitter feed leans towards elation and exuberance that Ukraine is resisting the aggression, that Kiev is standing free for another day, gleefully sharing information on the disorganized Russian military and the protests building in large Russian cities. I am much more cautious in this regard; I don’t think Putin would back down this quickly regardless of the situation on the ground. I would refrain from celebrations and congratulatory laps until his army has retreated outside Ukrainian borders and Putin is openly participating in peace talks – or is removed from his position as head of state.
It appears that Putin severely underestimated how much the world--after 2+ years of dealing with the ambiguities of Covid--was really itching for an uncomplicated Bad Guy that we could all gang up on in a wave of righteous fury.
— Maggie MacAlpine (@MaggieMacAlpine) February 28, 2022
Until such time, the situation remains volatile and none of the possible outcomes look very positive. If Putin were able to easily subdue Ukraine (which currently seems more unlikely by the day), his appetite for expansion might turn towards other neighbors: Moldova, Finland, maybe even the Baltic states, despite their NATO membership. In the opposite scenario, if Russian forces suffer humiliating defeats and sanctions and internal opposition erode Putin’s grasp on power, he might lash out by either bombing the country or even launching nuclear weapons against them. Putin’s removal from power could also prove a double-edged sword; there’s no reason to expect that he would be replaced by a more moderate figure, and the ongoing chaos until someone claims central authority could spiral out of control in nasty, unpredictable ways. Let’s not forget the large Russian nuclear arsenal; weapons or nuclear material could easily fall into the wrong hands during a revolution – in fact, this is one of the reasons why Ukraine was encouraged to give up the Russian arsenal in its borders after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
A prolonged conflict would similarly wreak havoc on Ukraine, the Russian people through economic sanctions, and the world at large. This war has the potential to impact a wide swath of areas, causing everything from food shortages to price hikes for energy and raw materials, from logistic delays because of air travel restrictions to… cancellation of space missions! It remains to be seen how these extensive sanctions play out and it they achieve their purpose. Putin might conceivably find alternative financial sources, either through arrangements with the Chinese and Indians, or Bitcoin. Either way, it looks as if a new Cold War, and a fracturing of the globe into (at least) two camps, is inevitable at this point.
It will be interesting to follow how China will react over the short and longer term. For now, they appear to remain ambivalent towards Russia, displaying some public criticism but no concrete restrictions. The outcome of this conflict might determine how and when China acts on Taiwan: if the Western front holds and Putin backs down eventually, China may refrain from launching a similar ‘reunification’ campaign in Taiwan, or at least significantly delay it. If the conflict drags on, with more American forces deployed in Eastern Europe, China may consider it a favorable time to move on Taiwan. In an even more dangerous scenario, China might try to seize some of the Russian territories in the Far East, while the bulk of its army is held up in Ukraine, or in case Putin is abruptly removed from power and the new leadership seems powerless and confused. That eventuality has the potential to spark a nuclear war, with a desperate Russian leader trying to hold back Chinese advances. Or China might simply decide to hunker down and wait for the West and Russians to wear each other out, judging that they would come out on top eventually with minimal effort. Interesting times indeed…
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