If an asteroid the size of YR4 were to hit our planet, it would not end life on Earth, but it would be devastating. At that size, the impact would be equivalent to a
10-megaton bomb, Tonry says—more than enough to cause widespread regional decimation.Everything within three or four kilometers would be incinerated, Tonry says.Everything out to maybe 10 kilometers is smashed. It’s not a nuclear explosion, but it’s an extremely hot explosion. There would be a huge fireball that would start fires out to 15 kilometers, something like that. It would kill a lot of people if they haven’t moved out of the way.
And time is of the essence. The asteroid is currently moving away from Earth, and by April, it will no longer be visible to telescopes. Outside this slim window of opportunity, the next chance to observe the asteroid to assess its threat won’t arrive until YR4 next swoops near Earth in 2028—the only such pass before the unnerving deadline of December 22, 2032. If the asteroid still poses an impact risk by then, there would be perilously little time to stand up a robust response. Prudence may thus demand devising a mitigation strategy in the interim on the off chance—even if remote—that the asteroid could hit.
Jonathan O'Callaghan
When it comes whipping by in 2028, we could have a mission basically all ready to go when new observations come in, Tonry says. Alternatively, he adds,we could decide to leave it aloneif forecasts show the asteroid won’t strike Earth.
In the meantime an impact in 2032 from this asteroid has been almost completely ruled out – though there’s still a chance it will hit the Moon instead. But even if the likelihood of impact would have remained perilously high, I very much doubt a mission to deflect it would get off the ground in due time. Like in the movie Don’t Look Up, most of the world would likely shrug the threat off as too distant, or simply dismiss it outright as misinformation or some sort of government conspiracy. Every attempt to advance the planning or launch would be flooded with social media posts asking why are we spending money on this instead of the countries on the projected impact path, or people claiming the mission would instead divert the asteroid towards Earth to use as a weapon against the enemy of the day.