Mr. Putin’s fall will take place amid the military and economic disasters he created and, regardless of who claims the Kremlin, the free world will have considerable leverage over their survival. Even a nationalist junta, unless it wishes to follow quickly in Putin’s footsteps, will need to reach accords to get the lights back on. These agreements cannot be limited to rhetoric about free elections. They must include reparations to Ukraine and war crimes trials. They must outline plans for a new constitution, with a parliamentary system, and for the independence of Russian regions long exploited by Moscow’s imperial grasp.
Russia after Mr. Putin is as difficult to picture as he intended. Every dictator must appear irreplaceable, to be the lesser evil, the devil we know. But Mr. Putin’s end will come, as much a surprise to him as to anyone else. Let us learn from the past and be ready.
Garry Kasparov
Interesting collection of opinions on how Russia would look like after the end of Vladimir Putin’s control – interesting in the sense that many reflect the pervasive wishful thinking that has dominated the discussion around this conflict. How many times have we heard that the Russian army is on the brink of collapse, that Putin is terminally ill or on the verge of being deposed by his inner circle, that sanctions will run the Russian economy into the ground? While each of these outcomes remain possible, we shouldn’t overestimate their likelihood, or base our entire foreign policy on thin assumptions.
Another instance of unrealistic expectations are the notion of prosecuting Putin for war crimes and breaking up Russia. Can anyone present a concrete scenario in which the sitting head of the country with the largest nuclear arsenal would be arrested and brought before a tribunal? Just days ago, the International Criminal Court issued a warrant for Putin in relation to the invasion of Ukraine – but who would enforce such a warrant? The US isn’t even a signatory of the Rome Statute – to avoid its own citizens being prosecuted for illegitimate military interventions such as Iraq. Moreover, the Pentagon is apparently blocking sharing evidence of possible Russian war crimes with the International Criminal Court to avoid setting a precedent! Even if Putin were removed from power, would a new Russian leadership allow its former head of state to be tried in such a public and humiliating matter? I think not…
Five predictions about Russia (since the war) that have not worked out:
— Sergey Radchenko (@DrRadchenko) March 6, 2023
1) That Putin would be overthrown in a palace coup (highly popular at early stages, less in recent months).
Personally, I’m quite pessimistic about the prospects of Russia and its relationship with the West – as are some of the experts interviewed for this piece. There’s no reason to think that absent Putin Russia would suddenly embrace Western values, renounce its claims to a sphere of influence or renege on its partnership with China. Quite the opposite: many Russians fled the country to avoid the draft, those remaining have soured on the Western promise by years of perceived disdain and the recent reticence to welcome draft dodgers. In the coming years, I find it more likely that Russia will increasingly collaborate with China, both politically and economically, even from the position of a junior partner, in order to counter what they perceive as a bigger threat, US power and hegemony.
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As for possible successors, Mr. Putin faces hardly any public protests that he cannot handle, and there is no galvanizing opposition leader. Any serious challenger is likely to emerge from the leadership circle around him, which is filled with hawks who are all deeply invested in the Ukraine war, like Nikolai Patrushev, secretary of the National Security Council, and Dmitry Medvedev, who replaced Mr. Putin as president from 2008 to 2012.
John J. Mearsheimer
Those hoping for an end to the fighting in Ukraine should not see Mr. Putin’s removal as a promising path to peace. There are only two ways Vladimir Putin can depart the Kremlin: by dying in office or being removed by members of his own inner circle. Neither guarantees a better future for Russia or a more stable foreign policy. The sources of tension between Russia and the West—over Russia’s so-called sphere of influence, over the security architecture of Europe and ultimately over the future of the global order—are structural and transcend the desires of any particular Russian leader.
Seva GunitskyOur parents did not feel this way in the late 1980s. In the years before the Soviet Union collapsed, many Russians believed that if the country could just get rid of the Communist party and the KGB, it would find its way to normalcy. To leave the Soviet past behind did not require major institutions to be completely destroyed and rebuilt from scratch. This view was naïve, as we all see today, but such optimism made possible the reforms of the 1990s. Most of us are not so optimistic today, and support for democratic reform is not nearly as widespread as it once was.
As the Cold War ended, both Soviets and Westerners believed that a post-communist U.S.S.R. could become European in a matter of years. That view is gone forever. The result of the present war, no matter how it ends on the battlefield, will be many years of Russian isolation. The Western world has grown tired of Mr. Putin and, by extension, Russia.
Andrei Soldatov
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