So why have mass street protests in Ukraine, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia resulted in a change of government, while comparatively massive and determined protest movements in other post-Soviet states left ruling powers intact?
The following is necessarily a condensed version of protests, uprisings and “revolutions” in the post-Soviet space since 1991, but it goes something like that:
- these revolutions have succeeded only where political power is fragmented or distributed, where there are well-established, competing political camps of significant power
- security and law enforcement services aren’t defeated or scattered in these revolutions, they just choose to switch their allegiances, to one of those alternative well-established political camps of point 1.
Ordinary Russians aren’t rising up in large numbers, because none of the usual conditions that trigger such events are present. (No, waging a war of aggression isn’t one of those conditions.)
The hyper-mobilized underground of routine protesters and the anti-war movement have been lying low in recent months, because they know there is no theory of change that ends with Putin no longer in charge. They are choosing self-preservation, although from what I can see, it’s not so much a choice as being forced onto them.
Almut Rochowanski
Thoughtful criticism of some popular talking points about Russia, questions endlessly repeated on Twitter about why Russians aren’t out in the streets protesting the war and overthrowing their government, inevitably arriving at the conclusion that they’re lazy, apathetic, cowardly, disorganized and incompetent
. The actual reason, as laid out here and elsewhere, is how Putin systematically dismantled or coopted competing political camps to remove any viable alternative to his regime. Similar conditions explain the failure of protests against Lukashenko in Belarus in the summer of 2020. And while recurring mass movements in Kyrgyzstan and Ukraine have successfully toppled governments, they didn’t achieve core goals of greater social and economic justice.